Knowing *when* to reach out to customers showing signs of potential churn is critical for Australian SMEs. It’s not enough to simply identify at-risk individuals; timing is everything. Intervene too early, and you risk annoying customers who were simply experiencing a temporary blip. Intervene too late, and you’ve likely lost the opportunity to retain them. We’ve seen countless businesses improve their retention rates simply by refining their intervention timing.

The optimal moment isn’t a fixed date, but rather a point determined by analysing customer behaviour and applying a little predictive modelling. Here are a few key insights we’ve found consistently valuable:

• Focus on behavioural change, not just inactivity: A customer who hasn’t logged in for a week isn’t necessarily at risk. But a customer who *always* logged in daily and suddenly stops? That’s a strong signal. We recommend tracking key actions specific to your business – purchases, feature usage, support requests – and flagging deviations from established patterns.
• The ‘3-touch rule’ with decreasing intensity: Once a risk signal is triggered, don’t bombard the customer. Instead, implement a series of three interventions. First, a helpful email offering assistance. Second, a personalised in-app message. Third, if no response, a phone call. Each touchpoint should be less intrusive than the last.
• Consider the ‘recency, frequency, monetary’ (RFM) score: This is a classic customer segmentation technique. Customers with low recency (haven’t interacted recently), low frequency (don’t interact often), and low monetary value (spend little) are the most at-risk and require immediate attention.
• Look for negative sentiment in customer feedback: Tools that analyse customer support tickets, social media mentions, and survey responses can identify negative sentiment. Addressing this feedback proactively, *before* it escalates, is a powerful retention tactic.

Don’t fall into the trap of waiting for a formal cancellation request. By the time a customer actively cancels, it’s almost always too late. Proactive intervention, based on behavioural data and a carefully timed series of touchpoints, is the most effective way to keep your valuable customers engaged. We suggest starting with a thorough audit of your current customer data to identify key behavioural indicators and then building a simple intervention workflow. This will provide a solid foundation for improving your customer retention rates and driving sustainable growth into 2026 and beyond.

Your next step? Map out the critical actions within your business and define what constitutes a significant deviation from the norm for each customer.