In 2026, Google Analytics 4 (GA4) will fully transition to a privacy-centric, modelling-based measurement system, replacing reliance on directly observed data with consent-mode informed estimations, particularly impacting businesses operating in regions with strict data privacy regulations like Australia.
As of December 2025, GA4 currently uses a combination of observed data and modelled data to fill gaps where user consent is not given. In 2026, this modelling will become more sophisticated and pervasive. This means GA4 will increasingly predict user behaviour and conversions based on aggregated and anonymised data, rather than tracking individual users directly. Key to this is the enhanced use of Google’s machine learning algorithms. Consent Mode, which allows websites to adjust GA4’s behaviour based on user consent choices (or lack thereof), will become even more critical. Currently, Consent Mode impacts reporting accuracy; in 2026, it will fundamentally *define* the data available. Australian businesses should understand that data discrepancies between GA4 and other platforms (like advertising platforms) may increase as modelling becomes dominant. Data thresholds for reporting will also likely remain in place, meaning smaller datasets may be subject to more significant modelling adjustments.
Ultimately, GA4 in 2026 will function as a predictive analytics platform, leveraging machine learning to provide insights even with limited directly observed data, operating within the boundaries of user privacy and consent.
