Australian SMEs are facing a period of increased uncertainty. Global events, changing consumer behaviour, and rapid technological advancements mean predictable marketing strategies are becoming less effective. To thrive, we need to move beyond annual planning and embrace scenario planning – a process that prepares us for a range of possible futures. This isn’t about predicting the future, it’s about building resilience and agility into our marketing approaches.

So, what scenarios should we be considering as we look ahead? We’ve identified a few key areas where volatility is likely to impact marketing performance. These aren’t mutually exclusive; in fact, they’re likely to overlap and interact.

• Economic Slowdown/Stagflation: A significant downturn, or a period of slow growth combined with rising prices, will force consumers to tighten their belts. Marketing needs to shift towards demonstrating value, affordability, and essential benefits. Expect increased price sensitivity and a focus on needs over wants.
• Technological Disruption (AI & Automation): The continued rise of artificial intelligence and automation will reshape how we reach and engage customers. We need to explore how AI can enhance our marketing efforts – from content creation and personalisation to data analysis and campaign optimisation – but also prepare for potential shifts in advertising platforms and consumer expectations around personalised experiences.
• Shifting Consumer Values & Loyalty: Australian consumers are increasingly values-driven, prioritising sustainability, ethical practices, and authentic brand experiences. Marketing must reflect these values, or risk alienating customers. Loyalty programs need to evolve beyond transactional rewards to build genuine community and shared purpose.
• Increased Competition from Global Players: The Australian market is becoming increasingly accessible to international businesses, particularly through digital channels. We need to focus on differentiation, building strong brand equity, and leveraging our understanding of the local market to compete effectively.

For each scenario, we recommend developing ‘if-then’ marketing plans. For example: “If consumer spending decreases, then we will increase our focus on value-based messaging and promotional offers.” This proactive approach allows us to react quickly and minimise disruption. Regularly revisiting and updating these scenarios – at least quarterly – is crucial.

The outcome of robust scenario planning isn’t a crystal ball, but a toolkit of adaptable strategies. Your next step should be to gather your marketing team and key stakeholders to brainstorm potential future scenarios and begin developing corresponding marketing responses. This will position your business to not just survive, but thrive, in a volatile market.