Australian SMEs are rightly focused on proving the return on investment from their lead generation efforts. But as customer journeys become more complex, understanding which marketing touchpoints truly deserve credit is increasingly difficult. The simple ‘last-click’ attribution model – giving all the credit to the final interaction before a lead converts – is no longer sufficient. We’re seeing a shift towards more sophisticated approaches, and this trend will accelerate.

So, what attribution models will accurately measure lead generation performance? Here are a few key considerations for businesses preparing for the next couple of years.

• Data-Driven Attribution: This is where the real power lies. These models use algorithms to analyse all your marketing data and determine the incremental impact of each touchpoint. It’s not about equal credit, but about understanding which interactions genuinely moved the needle. While it requires more data and potentially specialist tools, it provides the most accurate picture.
• Time Decay Attribution: Recognising that touchpoints closer to conversion are more influential, this model assigns more credit to recent interactions. It’s a good middle ground – more sophisticated than last-click, but less complex than data-driven. This is particularly useful for shorter sales cycles.
• Position-Based (U-Shaped) Attribution: This model gives significant weight to the first and last touchpoints, acknowledging their importance in initiating and closing the deal. A percentage of the credit is then distributed amongst the interactions in between. It’s a practical option for businesses wanting a balanced approach.
• Multi-Touch Attribution with Customer Lifetime Value (CLTV): Looking beyond the initial lead, incorporating CLTV into your attribution model is crucial. A lead source that consistently generates high-value customers should be rewarded, even if its initial conversion rate isn’t the highest.

The key takeaway is that a single model isn’t a silver bullet. The best approach depends on your business, your sales cycle, and the data you have available. We anticipate that by 2027, businesses still relying solely on last-click attribution will be at a significant disadvantage, unable to optimise their marketing spend effectively.

To get started, we recommend auditing your current attribution setup. Identify the data you’re collecting, the tools you’re using, and the assumptions you’re making. Then, explore the options outlined above and consider running A/B tests to compare the performance of different models. Understanding where your leads are *really* coming from is the foundation for sustainable growth.