How to identify at-risk customers before they leave?

ROI insights

Losing customers is a natural part of business, but proactively identifying those at risk of leaving – what we call ‘churn’ – is crucial for sustainable growth. It’s far more cost-effective to keep an existing customer than to acquire a new one, especially as competition heats up. We’ve seen Australian SMEs consistently improve retention rates by focusing on early warning signals.

So, how do you pinpoint these at-risk customers? It’s about looking beyond simple sales figures and analysing behaviour. Here are a few key areas to focus on:

  • Declining Engagement: This is often the first sign. Are customers opening fewer of your emails? Are they logging into your platform less frequently? A drop in website visits, particularly to key pages, is also telling. We recommend setting up automated alerts when engagement metrics fall below a certain threshold.
  • Reduced Purchase Frequency or Value: A customer who consistently bought monthly, then switches to quarterly, or starts spending significantly less each time, is showing signs of disengagement. Look for patterns – is this a one-off, or a consistent trend?
  • Negative Feedback & Support Interactions: Pay close attention to customer service interactions. An increase in complaints, or consistently negative sentiment in feedback surveys, indicates dissatisfaction. Don’t just resolve the issue; analyse *why* it happened to prevent recurrence.
  • Changes in Customer Profile: Has their business changed? Have they altered their stated needs or preferences? This might signal they’ve outgrown your offering, or found a competitor better suited to their new situation. Regularly updating customer profiles helps us identify these shifts.

These signals aren’t definitive proof of churn, but they’re strong indicators. The next step is targeted intervention. This could involve a personalised email offering assistance, a phone call to check in, or a special promotion to re-engage them. Remember, proactive communication demonstrates you value their business.

Investing in a simple customer health scoring system – assigning points based on these behaviours – can automate this process. By focusing on these early warning signs, you can significantly reduce churn and build a more loyal customer base, setting your business up for success in 2026 and beyond. The key takeaway? Don’t wait for customers to tell you they’re leaving; anticipate their needs and address potential issues before they escalate.

The bottom line

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