Australian SMEs are facing increasing pressure to demonstrate the return on their marketing investment. Simply tracking clicks and conversions isn’t enough anymore. We’re seeing a significant shift towards incrementality testing – a method that reveals the *true* impact of your marketing, beyond what standard analytics tell you. As we look ahead, this will become absolutely critical for sustainable growth.

Traditionally, attribution models attempt to assign value to each touchpoint in a customer’s journey. However, these models often overestimate the impact of marketing because they don’t account for customers who would have purchased anyway. Incrementality testing cuts through this noise by measuring the *additional* sales generated specifically by your marketing efforts.

Here’s what we’re observing about marketing ROI through incrementality testing in the Australian market:

• Social media’s halo effect is often overstated: Many businesses assume a large social media following directly translates to sales. Incrementality tests frequently show a smaller incremental lift than expected, highlighting the importance of targeted campaigns rather than broad reach.
• Search marketing remains highly incremental: Paid search, when well-managed, consistently demonstrates strong incrementality. Australians actively search for solutions, and being visible at that moment of intent drives genuine new business.
• Email marketing’s power is underestimated: Despite being ‘older’, well-segmented email campaigns – particularly those focused on retention – show surprisingly high incremental impact. Australians respond well to personalised offers from brands they trust.
• Geographic targeting matters: Incrementality testing reveals significant variations in marketing effectiveness across different regions of Australia. A national campaign isn’t always the most efficient approach; localised strategies often deliver better results.

Looking towards 2026 and 2027, we anticipate that sophisticated incrementality testing will be a core competency for successful Australian SMEs. The cost of marketing is only increasing, and proving ROI will be paramount. It’s no longer enough to *think* your marketing is working; you need to *know* it is.

The best next step is to run a small-scale incrementality test on one of your key campaigns. Identify a test group and a control group, and measure the difference in sales. This will provide valuable insights and a solid foundation for optimising your marketing spend for maximum return.